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Analysis of current situation and situation of the steel pipe industry (2019)

Views:0     Author:Site Editor     Publish Time: 2019-05-11      Origin:Site


Industry status quo

According to relevant data from the national bureau of statistics, China's steel pipe production in 2018 was 73.2011 million tons, of which the welded pipe production was 48.3724 million tons and the seamless pipe production was 24.8287 million tons. In the process of steel pipe production growth, steel pipe specifications, varieties, quality, and service have also made significant progress, but also created the Chinese miracle.

In 2004, China became the world's largest steel pipe producer with the world's largest steel pipe output. Since 2012, China's steel pipe production has been accounting for more than 50% of the world's total steel pipe production. In particular, a number of high-end steel pipe products have broken the foreign monopoly and technical blockade, and the self-sufficiency rate of steel pipe products has reached over 99%, effectively supporting the rapid development of the national economy and the transformation and development of the downstream steel pipe industry. In the past 40 years, China's annual output of steel pipes has increased from 1.687 million tons in 1978 to more than 70 million tons in 2018. In 2015, China's steel pipe production exceeded 90 million tons, the highest level in history. Over the past 40 years, the total output of steel pipes in China has reached more than 1 billion tons, including more than 650 million tons of welded pipes and more than 400 million tons of seamless pipes. The production trend of welded and seamless pipes in China from 1978 to 2018 is shown in figure 1. Can be seen from the figure 1, China's steel pipe industry in 1978-2001 in a steady development, in 2002-2015 in a high-speed development period, 2016 years after steadily into the structure adjustment, this is the steel pipe industry in our country to carry out the backward production capacity, structural adjustment, for short, after mass transfer efficiency and other policy achievements, shows that China's steel pipe industry to promote structural reform, the supply side steady rise of transformation and upgrading.


At present, the process, technology and equipment of the steel pipe industry in China have reached the world-class level, laying a solid foundation for the healthy development of the industry. China's steel pipe production models are complete (see table 1), advanced technology, specifications, varieties, quality and service to meet market demand; At the same time, the garden-style green environmental protection image of steel tube plant is constantly improving; Harmonious coexistence between enterprises and cities and environment; The competitiveness of the international market has been significantly improved, and the steel pipe production capacity is the global "hegemon".

 

In 2018, the export volume of steel pipes in China was 8.2755 million tons, down 5.4% year-on-year, among which the export volume of seamless pipes was 4.2253 million tons and the export volume of welded pipes was 4.0502 million tons. The imports of steel pipes were 535,300, up 31.9% year on year, including 258,200 tons of seamless pipes and 277,100 tons of welded pipes. By 2018, the export volume of steel pipes in China has been declining for five consecutive years and the import volume has been increasing for three consecutive years, but the annual import volume is less than 1% of the domestic consumption.

Industry focus

In 2019, China's steel pipe industry faces both opportunities and challenges, and the opportunities outweigh the challenges. To do a good job in the steel pipe industry, the key is to rely on steel pipe enterprises to emancipate their minds, open up their minds, strengthen their confidence, work together, and self-discipline. From the international point of view, the economic situation is complex, trade friction is becoming more and more serious, trade barriers cannot be ignored, the global economic downward pressure increases, the export uncertainty increases, the export is more and more difficult, the import volume increases, China's steel pipe market overcapacity, increasingly fierce competition. From the domestic point of view, since 2017, the efficiency of steel pipe enterprises in China has improved, and the new round of capacity expansion in 2018 has picked up, which may lay hidden dangers for the healthy development of steel pipe industry. The product structure is unreasonable. Based on the analysis of the import and export price of steel pipes in China in 2018, the average import and export price of seamless pipes differs by USD 3,555.5 / ton, among which the average import price is 3.5 times of the average export price. The average import and export price of welded pipes differs by USD 1531.7 / ton, of which the average import price is 2.4 times the average export price. This phenomenon shows that China's steel pipe industry in the middle and low-end products are still surplus, prominent weaknesses, high-end products export proportion is low, in the international high-end market competitiveness is not strong, has not formed enough brand support, the industrial structure still needs to be deep adjustment. The forms of international trade sanctions are diversified, and they are no longer just a single "counteract". The so-called "China threat" theory, national security, intellectual property protection, trade balance and so on have all become the reasons for trade sanctions. And in the form of international trade sanctions on the government's role has become more important and directly, such as 232, 301 in the United States and the European Union steel safeguard measures, etc., already broke through the traditional trade remedy measures, trade balance and the friction between rise to economies, the launch and will ultimately affect the unpredictability of the strong and not controllable, completely beyond the steel (tube) industry or market can be the scope of the strategy. Especially under the policy of the us adopting protectionism, unilateralism and constructing new economic and trade rules, the global economic and trade tensions are increasing day by day, and the international economic and trade rules may be pushed to change. Chinese steel and iron enterprises should timely pay attention to the new trends of overseas trade frictions and improve their ability to deal with overseas risks.

Although the price of steel pipe is relatively stable at present, the profit of steel pipe production enterprises is fair, but the outlook of steel pipe enterprises is still not optimistic. Enterprises can not only focus on the immediate profit, blindly increase capacity, that will increase the supply and demand relationship and market direction of domestic steel pipe market uncertainty. Due to the release of new capacity, the author believes that there are certain uncertainties in the price and demand of steel pipes in 2019, as well as the sustainability of the supply-demand balance. However, the country should not easily give up the achievements made in capacity reduction and environmental governance.

 

Steel pipe overcapacity, according to incomplete statistics, 2018-2019 is expected to increase the capacity of seamless pipe will reach about 4.5 million tons, welded pipe new capacity will reach more than 1 million tons (stainless steel pipe increment more).


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